The main carriers’ average EBIT margins fell by 3.4% from the 2Q peak of 54.3% to 50.9%. However, the gap between individual carriers are widening, with some notable drops at Wan Hai (down 13.0%), OOCL (down 8.3%), HMM (down 6.8%) and Yang Ming (down 6.1%). Carriers with a larger share on the Asia-US West Coast have suffered the largest margin erosion, with a sharper drop expected in 4Q 2022 as the rate malaise has spread to other tradelanes.
EMC, YMM and WHL reported October top line. In aggregate, which provide better read through for the industry, revenue in USD fell 15% MoM and 33% YoY, probably would be taken as positive surprises since the fall is less than CCFI. As additional context for this set of October figures, the Taiwanese liners' revenue fell more more than CCFI during September.
OOIL and the Taiwanese liners' revenue reports came out after the market close on Friday (7 Oct). All four liners reported sequentially lower revenue in 3Q. Liners will start to report their 3Q earnings in the coming weeks. These revenue reports suggest 3Q earnings may have come off from this cycle peak in 2Q. Consensus in the capital market is expecting 3Q liner* earnings to be between 4% up and 18% down QoQ. OOIL's 3Q revenue dropped only 5% QoQ while Wanhai's 3Q revenue dropped 18% QoQ. Sequ
WHL and YMM also reported their August revenue last week, after EMC. WHL's August revenue fell 20% YoY, 12% MoM and 40% from its peak in Jan 2022. YMM's August revenue also fell both YoY and MoM. If the same MoM pace continues for Sep, the three Taiwanese liners will likely report 9% M0M lower top line and hence 7% QoQ lower top line for for 3Q 2022. Liner industry reported about 58% EBIT margin and 50% net profit margin during 2Q 2022. So on the ballpark, every 1% drop in top line would mean
The best yard stick, in our view, measuring management performance is the financial return generate over time. And the most direct financial return for shareholders is the dividend pay-out relative to a company's market value. Liners have been swimming in cash on extraordinary earnings since 2021. Reasonably, they also distributed dividend generously. Between 2021 and July 2022 end, a total of $38bn* of dividend paid while another $14bn have been committed to be paid in 2022 by the 16 shipping
Taiwanese liners' industry first top line reports came out over the last three days. In July, Evergreen delivered another record revenue while both Yang Ming and Wan Hai saw their top line came of 5% and 6% MoM respectively. In aggregate, the Taiwanese liners' top line in NTD was down 1% MoM. Since USD has strengthened further in July, these liners' top line in USD maybe down 2% MoM. Given July volume usually is higher than same in June. Average freight rates may be down sequentially during J
Taiwanese carriers' monthly revenue up 6% MoM in June and, on quarterly basis, 22Q2 was flat comparing to 22Q1, a trend consistent with the top line reported by OOIL earlier.
Taiwanese liners' May top line came out flat MoM, again reassuring that impacts during the Shanghai lockdown were minimal for the liners.
Taiwanese liners' April top line came out as a positive surprise. The spot freight rates, as per SCFI, have fallen 7.5% MoM while Shanghai/Ningbo's combined port throughput was down 10% MoM in April. However, the Taiwanese liners' combined revenue ...
The 3 main Taiwanese carriers have reported an 8% QoQ growth in revenue for the 1st quarter of 2022. It is their 7th consecutive quarterly growth, built on higher freight rates and stronger USD.