Yang Ming provided headline FY2022 results overnight (10 Mar) where earnings attributable to shareholders during 4Q 2022 dropped 76% YoY and 71% QoQ, much steeper drop than most the peers that have reported so far.
Taiwanese liners' January revenue continued its slide. In aggregate these 3 listed liners' revenue at about $1.6bn in January was down 14% MoM and 65% YoY. The 14% sequential fall in January was similar to the pace of fall in December. This year's Lunar New Year public holidays went from 21 to 27 January in China. Many factories in China closed ahead of the official public holidays and resumed production later than the official holiday end, which may have negatively impact container shipment v
The listed Taiwanese liners have all reported their Dec 2022 revenues, which are the first actual figures of the FY2022 and 22Q4 results among all liners. In short, these liners revenue dropped 39% QoQ and 44% YoY. In 3Q22, the listed Taiwanese liners together have delivered $11bn in revenue and $5.9bn in net profit. The $4.3bn or 39% QoQ fall in revenue during 4Q22 will likely reduce these liner's net profit by nearly 60% QoQ, in our estimates assuming 20% lower fuel expenses and 60% lower ta
Yang Ming Marine (YMM) reported NTD16.3bn or $534mn (on 30.6 NTD/$) for December revenue. In US dollars, the counter was down 58% YoY and 14% MoM. In aggregate, 4Q22 revenue was $1.9bn, down $1.4bn or 42% QoQ. Given most of of the decline was driven by much lower freight rates. YMM's 4Q net earnings could be down over $1bn, against the $1.6bn reported for 3Q.
CMA CGM has joined COSCO, OOCL and ONE on the East Mediterranean America (EMA) service, replacing Yang Ming as the 4th partner on the Med-USEC service. CMA CGM sells the service as the Turkey Express (TUX), with its participation commencing from 25 November 2022 with the introduction of the 4,360 teu CMA CGM LAPIS to the service. It will join 5 other ships of 4,200-5,00 teu, of which 2 are operated by COSCO and ONE, and 1 by OOCL. The service currently calls at Iskenderun, Aliaga, Ambarli, Pir
The main carriers’ average EBIT margins fell by 3.4% from the 2Q peak of 54.3% to 50.9%. However, the gap between individual carriers are widening, with some notable drops at Wan Hai (down 13.0%), OOCL (down 8.3%), HMM (down 6.8%) and Yang Ming (down 6.1%). Carriers with a larger share on the Asia-US West Coast have suffered the largest margin erosion, with a sharper drop expected in 4Q 2022 as the rate malaise has spread to other tradelanes.
EMC, YMM and WHL reported October top line. In aggregate, which provide better read through for the industry, revenue in USD fell 15% MoM and 33% YoY, probably would be taken as positive surprises since the fall is less than CCFI. As additional context for this set of October figures, the Taiwanese liners' revenue fell more more than CCFI during September.
OOIL and the Taiwanese liners' revenue reports came out after the market close on Friday (7 Oct). All four liners reported sequentially lower revenue in 3Q. Liners will start to report their 3Q earnings in the coming weeks. These revenue reports suggest 3Q earnings may have come off from this cycle peak in 2Q. Consensus in the capital market is expecting 3Q liner* earnings to be between 4% up and 18% down QoQ. OOIL's 3Q revenue dropped only 5% QoQ while Wanhai's 3Q revenue dropped 18% QoQ. Sequ
WHL and YMM also reported their August revenue last week, after EMC. WHL's August revenue fell 20% YoY, 12% MoM and 40% from its peak in Jan 2022. YMM's August revenue also fell both YoY and MoM. If the same MoM pace continues for Sep, the three Taiwanese liners will likely report 9% M0M lower top line and hence 7% QoQ lower top line for for 3Q 2022. Liner industry reported about 58% EBIT margin and 50% net profit margin during 2Q 2022. So on the ballpark, every 1% drop in top line would mean
The best yard stick, in our view, measuring management performance is the financial return generate over time. And the most direct financial return for shareholders is the dividend pay-out relative to a company's market value. Liners have been swimming in cash on extraordinary earnings since 2021. Reasonably, they also distributed dividend generously. Between 2021 and July 2022 end, a total of $38bn* of dividend paid while another $14bn have been committed to be paid in 2022 by the 16 shipping