Total 385 Posts
It was a busy day as Israel launched an attack on Iran, which many freight futures traders interpreted as a buy signal. Traders have become conditioned to view any conflict as potentially positive for container shipping freight rates. The rally began with longer-dated contracts, fueled by expectation that liners will have to postpone their return to the Red Sea. Later, the main contracts, EC2508 and EC2510, gained momentum on expectations of increased fuel surcharges, which would be added to the
Freight futures in China surged shortly after market open, following news of Iran’s threats of retaliation against Israel—a development that raised expectations of a delay in liners returning to the Suez route. However, short sellers subsequently entered the market and drove down futures prices for most of the day. Despite this, longer-dated contracts ended the session higher, supported by increased open interest.
The sharp correction in freight rates on the Far East–West Coast North America route since June appears to have deflated pricing on the Far East–Northern Europe route as well, where vessel utilisation has remained lacklustre. With the prospect of $3,000 per FEU before July now in doubt, shipping lines are once again trimming rates for the next fortnight. The futures market is just moving side way at low trading volume.
Asia-Europe carriers continue to struggle to maintain an united front on their pricing, with the range of rates remaining wide going into the 2nd half of June. Maersk’s pricing remains highly erratic as it reversed its aggressive price cuts in early June with higher rates in the 2nd half of the month although its rate quotations remain lower than other carriers on the North European routes. Port congestion remains high across all North European main ports, but this has not resulted in any mater
The North Europe SCFIS published after market close on 9 June rose by 29.5% to 1,623 points but remains 20% below the last EC2506 closing price which had risen by 6% over the past week in anticipation of the gains with carriers still eyeing another attempt to raise rates in mid-July. Open interest remains elevated at 7,803 contracts with just three weeks to expiry and could face selling pressure if the mid-July rate hike flops. Futures contracts for August-December traded sideways with no new c
Asia to US freight rates have peaked after carriers rolled back the increases from the last 2 weeks as the new Transpacific capacity injections have exceeded market demand, especially to the Los Angeles/Long Beach PSW gateway where carriers are struggling to fill the ships. Although PNW and US East Coast capacity remains tight, it will not be enough to push through a fresh round of rate increases in mid-June as the carriers focus on holding their recent gains. Carriers’ initial exuberance has be
The futures market is not satisfied with Maersk quoting $2,800 per FEU for the Shanghai to London route, which is above traders’ expectations. EC2508 closed today 2% below yesterday’s closing price. The liners’ decision to slash their quotations for the FE-WCNA route, along with both CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd lowering their rates for near-term FE-NEUR shipments, are red flags for traders.
EC2508 rallied into the close of the morning session on market chatter that Maersk may list some freight rates above $2,400 per FEU for the third week of June. Maersk typically starts by offering a freight rate low enough to secure bookings 2-4 weeks out, then lets the market bid up the price. As a result, it tends to begin each week’s sailings with lower rates.
The freight futures market in Shanghai remained range-bound today, as participants await Maersk’s quotation for the third week of June, despite CMA CGM and MSC pushing for rates of $3,900–4,000 per FEU from the second half of June.
Transpacific freight rates recorded their largest ever one week jump as the impact of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) from the roll back of US tariffs has provided a windfall for the container market. The market surge has also spilled over into the charter market where vessel availability is very low and carriers are still seeking tonnage to take advantage of the large rate hikes. The legal challenge in the US to Trump’s tariffs has added further uncertainty to the transpacific traffic volumes