Markets/Trades

The USTR announced on 17 April the revised Section 301 actions on China’s dominance In the shipbuilding sector, backing down from all of its initial proposals. Although port fees on Chinese operated and Chinese-built ships are retained, carriers will be able to circumvent the fees by swapping out all of the affected ships in the next 180 days as the fee will no longer apply on the operators’ fleet composition or prospective orders but only on ships calling at US ports on a per voyage basis (cha

Freight futures to North Europe extended their recent losses over the past week, with the main EC2506 contract tumbling by a further 10%. Traders ramped up their short positions on expectations that capacity withdrawn from transpacific routes would soon be redeployed to Asia-Europe lanes. Average daily trading volumes tumbled by 31%, while open interest staged a modest 6% rebound week-on-week. The SCFIS index registered a surprise 7.6% weekly rise on 21 April, but the bounce is likely to be sho

Asia-Europe rates resumed their downward slide as carriers failed to protect the small gains they eked out earlier in April. The SCFI slipped by 2.9% on 18 April but the SCFIS released on 21 April showed a surprising rise of 7.6%. The gain is expected to be reversed next week as spot FAK rates have continued to drop as carriers prepare to shift capacity away from the Transpacific to other tradelanes including Asia-Europe. The only factor keeping capacity in check at the moment is port congestio

The US-China standoff continues to keep container market sentiment poor with US tariff concessions far from sufficient to restore Transpacific volumes with cargo bookings in the next 3 weeks reported to be down by 30-60% in China and by 10-20% in the rest of Asia. The Labour Day holidays will further dampen cargo demand in May, and could force carriers to cancel additional sailings over the coming weeks in order to stop further freight rate erosion. Only 3 Transpacific services have been withdr

Asia-Europe rates received a much needed boost with gains on both the North Europe and Med routes as carriers pushed ahead with the mid-April rate increase of $200-300/teu that is holding for now on improved capacity utilization rates. With Chinese volumes shifting away from the US in the weeks ahead, carriers are eyeing increased demand to Europe as well as to the other markets to provide some relief from the turmoil in the US, with the overall SCFI edging up by 0.1% at the end of last week.

Container freight futures continued their retreat after last week’s US tariff turmoil. Apart from EC2504 which expires in 2 weeks, prices for longer dated contracts fell by 7% to 14% over the week, driven by short sellers in heavy trading with average daily volumes rising by 59% week on week. The SCFIS edged lower by 1.4% to 1,402 points on 14 April but could see some marginal gains in the next 2 weeks from the planned mid-April rate hikes with EC2504 trading at a 6% premium. Although EC2506 ra

Following a strong start in the first 2 months of the year, container cargo demand has fallen back in March with the volume rebound after the Chinese New Year failing to materialise. Current projections suggest full year container volumes will drop by 1.1% in 2025, as the muted cargo demand is expected to last through the summer peak season. The demand outlook for the rest of this year remains uncertain, with the threat of additional US tariffs that will be unveiled on 2 April expected to furth

The US tariffs announced on 2 April will have a larger impact on container markets, relative to other shipping segments, due to the heavier import duties on China and Vietnam which together account for 51% of total US container imports in 2024. The trade-weighted tariff rate is more than 36% based on Linerlytica’s calculations derived from each country’s share of total US container imports. The high import duties on other Southeast Asia and South Asia countries leaves little room to substitute c

Container freight futures tumbled on 7 April as concerns over a potential global recession following Trump’s tariff announcement. Apart from the short dated EC2504, all the other EC contracts have declined by 10-15% since the tariffs were announced on 2 April. However, the sell-off was less dramatic than the 20% correction in liner equities over the same period. Trading volume surged to 120,000 lots on 7 April on heavy trading but open interests dropped by just 3% today, as the futures largely a

The 1st April Asia-Europe rate hike flopped, with carriers failing to push through their announced rate increases with cargo demand showing no signs of strength. The SCFIS registered its 4th consecutive weekly decline with carriers more willing to slash rates than to cut capacity despite the deteriorating market conditions. Carriers are hoping that worsening port congestion at both Chinese and European & Mediterranean main ports could provide support for another attempt to hike rates, while car