Financials

Companies

ONE 3Q: BTE downcycle

ONE reported better-than-expected  22Q3 (Company's FY22Q2) results during lunch break today (31 Oct 2022) but guided beginning of an earning  down cycle. Net profit for 22Q3 was $5.5bn, up 31% YoY but flat QoQ. We have expected 10-20% QoQ drop in earnings for the industry for 3Q. The positive surprises came from the average freight rates which was up 5% YoY, beating the 7% QoQ drop in CCFI on likely two factors: (1) accounting delay in revenue booking because ships, particularly those in the l

Companies

COSCO 3Q earning details

COSCO reported full 3Q results after Friday (28 Oct) close, being the first top ten liner to report. The 16% sequential drop in earnings were already disclosed on 10 Oct's earning alert. Drivers to the sequential drop in earnings during 3Q were 11% QoQ increase in operating costs and 4% QoQ drop in volume. In other words, unit costs increased by 16% QoQ. Surprisingly, COSCO's average freight rates were up 1% QoQ during 3Q. Most of the impact from the collapse in spot freight rates since summer w

SITC

SITC container revenue down 20% QoQ in 3Q

SITC provided 3Q operation update at noon on Monday (24 Oct). SITC's container shipping and logistics revenue  up 41% YoY but dropped 20% QoQ.

Companies

European forwarders delivered in line 3Q results

K&N reported CHF688mn net profit for 22Q3, up 19% YoY but down 14% QoQ, accelerating sequential fall in earnings. We have expected the earning cycle of seafreight forwarders to move earlier than the container liners in this down cycle on the premises that spot rates, which the forwarders may rely on for the income, have declined faster than the the contract rates, which represent the bulk of forwarders' cost base. So far, K&N seafreight earnings have started to come down sequentially since 22Q2,

Companies

BAL parent company plans Hong Kong IPO

LC Logistics, the parent  company of BAL Container Line, has filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong on 24 October 2022. The company was founded by Xu Xin in 2004 in Qingdao as Shandong Lcang to provide freight forwarding services and is a related company of Qingdao Boan that is engaged in container sales and leasing. BAL Container Line was established as the liner operating arm of the Shandong Lcang Group in August 2012 in Hong Kong to provide SOC container transportation se

Evergreen

EMC: Lower Freight Rates Higher Bunker Price for 3Q

Evergreen Marine Corp (EMC), the listed subsidiary of Evergreen Group, provided an update presentation in Taiwan after market last Friday (14th Oct). The presentation materials provided additional color on the Evergreen's operation and relevant read through to the whole liner industry. First, decline in freight rates was the main reason for the 16% MoM drop in the Evergreen's revenue in September. During Sep, Evergreen's volume was down 5% MoM while the freight rates dropped 12% MoM. in the de

Matson

Matson 3Q EPS down 29% QoQ

Matson provided preliminary 3Q earnings after market close on Monday (Oct 18). 1. 3Q22 net income and diluted EPS were expected to be $257mn to $262mn and $6.67 to $6.79, respectively, which means EPS was down about 29% QoQ but still up 2% YoY. 2. Ocean transport, which is driven primarily by Matson's China-US routes namely CLX, CLX+ and CCX, was expected to have generated $310mn to $315mn, down 34% QoQ and 14% YoY. 3. Container volume was expected to be 112,707 feu in 3Q,

Companies

COSCO 3Q profit down 16% QoQ

COSCO provided a profit alert after market close today(10 Oct). The alert gave 9-month figures in RMB. For 3Q 2022 in USD, profit attributable to the shareholders were down 16% QoQ and flat YoY while EBIT was down 17% QoQ and down 1% YoY.

Companies

Liner revenue rolled over in Sep

OOIL and the Taiwanese liners' revenue reports came out after the market close on Friday (7 Oct). All four liners reported sequentially lower revenue in 3Q. Liners will start to report their 3Q earnings in the coming weeks. These revenue reports suggest 3Q earnings may have come off from this cycle peak in 2Q. Consensus in the capital market is expecting 3Q liner* earnings to be between 4% up and 18% down QoQ. OOIL's 3Q revenue dropped only 5% QoQ while Wanhai's 3Q revenue dropped 18% QoQ. Sequ

Companies

Liner OPEX Could Stay High Unrelated to Freight Rates

As the container liner sector is entering an earning downcycle, OPEX analysis should be back in focus for the stakeholders. While the average freight rates over 6-month has been tripled since 19H1, OPEX has also quietly moved up by 52%. Hence the 60% EBIT margin reported in 22H1. If the average freight rates fall by 60%, the industry will reach the break even level holding all else constant. Some of the OPEX items may not be correlated with the freight rates or at least not moving in synchroniz

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