The de-escalation in the Sino-US trade war came earlier than expected after the 2 countries agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs to 30% for Chinese exports to the US for 90 days from 14 May 2025 while tariffs on US exports to China is lowered to 10%, setting the stage for a surge in Transpacific cargo volumes in the next 3 months. The 115% cut in US tariffs on China was larger than expected amidst signs of severe strain on US import volumes that would have hit store shelves in the coming weeks. T
Ocean freight traffic slowed over the past week across Asia due to the Labour Day holidays but average freight rates largely held their ground despite the continuing market turmoil triggered by the US tariffs. Transpacific rates bucked the downward pressure as carriers moved swiftly to remove excess capacity that allowed them to secure rate hikes in both the spot and contract markets, although the rate strength is due more to an anticipated cargo surge if a Sino-US trade deal could be reached.
Carrier are pushing ahead with transpacific rate hikes in May despite the severe drop in Chinese volumes that has forced carriers to slash Transpacific capacity by over 20% while capacity utilization on the remaining services are down by more than 5%. The reduction in the cargo flow to the US will start to impact arrivals in May, raising the likelihood of an imminent Sino-US trade deal that could trigger a sharp rebound in Chinese cargo bookings to the US. This has helped carriers’ bid to hike t
The US-China standoff continues to keep container market sentiment poor with US tariff concessions far from sufficient to restore Transpacific volumes with cargo bookings in the next 3 weeks reported to be down by 30-60% in China and by 10-20% in the rest of Asia. The Labour Day holidays will further dampen cargo demand in May, and could force carriers to cancel additional sailings over the coming weeks in order to stop further freight rate erosion. Only 3 Transpacific services have been withdr
The US tariffs announced on 2 April will have a larger impact on container markets, relative to other shipping segments, due to the heavier import duties on China and Vietnam which together account for 51% of total US container imports in 2024. The trade-weighted tariff rate is more than 36% based on Linerlytica’s calculations derived from each country’s share of total US container imports. The high import duties on other Southeast Asia and South Asia countries leaves little room to substitute c
The US will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% from China from 4 February 2025, with no room for shippers to front load their cargo as only goods that are already in transit to the US before 1 February 2025 will be exempted. These moves will do little to reverse the worsening container trade imbalance in the US, with imports continuing to outpace exports by 2.4 times last year compared to 1.8 times in 2017 before import tariffs were introduced in 2018. Lo