The CoFIF market went into steeper backwardation as the spot SCFIS went up 12% WoW while the CoFIF contracts were down about 4-6% WoW across the board. Liquidation of the Open Interest continued but on a slower pace than previous weeks. There are indications that rates are peaking as the market looks beyond the current tight market to the expected rate correction post-Chinese New year, with the SCFI registering its first drop last week after 8 consecutive weekly hikes. Spot freight rates compi
It has been a volatile week in the CoFIF market that saw a limit-down day last Tuesday (9 Jan) and a big rally on Friday (12 Jan). Nevertheless, liquidation in the CoFIF market continued for the 3rd week albeit at slower pace. Open interests in CoFIF peaked on 22 December and have since fallen 69%. Further volatile trading is expected this week after the SCFI’s 8.1% gain on the Asia-North Europe route and the SCFIS which jumped by a further 49.7% on 15 Jan after the previous week’s 70.9% rise.
Option for those wanting to hedge against volatility in container shipping freight rate: CoFIF (Container Freight Index Futures)'s Asia-Europe contracts are trading at something (in $/40'dry) like $2400 for April, $2250 for June, $2147 for August and $1900 for October (our estimates) while liners are offering $3500 for annual contracts while spot rates at the moment is racing up t $5000 or above. Frankly no one know for sure where the freight rates will be in April through October. They could
CoFIF contracts surged in the first 2 trading days of 2024 and traded limit up to their maximum daily caps before softening in the next 3 trading days as the market awaits further signals from the SCFIS. Traders continue to prefer longer dated contracts, indicating a growing consensus that the Red Sea diversion may drag on. Open interest fell for the 2nd week in a row to just half of the peak on 22 December. This week’s trading will be driven by the latest SCFIS assessment on 8 January for the
CoFIF’s April contracts (EC2404) soared to a new high on 27 December but retreated on the last 2 trading days of the year to close at to 1,643 as the traders unwinded some of their pairs (long EC2404 and short EC2412). Market conviction weakened with Open Interest balance dropping through the week to end down by 50% WoW, with Maersk’s decision to resume Suez transits earlier last week dragging down the forward expectations. The latest SCFIS assessment on 1 January for the Asia-North Europe rout
Maersk’s statement over the weekend that it is planning to resume Red Sea transits sent both liner equities and forward CoFIF contracts into retreat on 25 December after a banner week for both markets last week. CoFIF futures for April surged by 55% last week while daily turnover averaged nearly $4.9bn and Open Interests reached $2bn. The latest SCFIS assessment on 25 December on the Asia-North Europe route surged by 21.7% following its 5.4% rise the week before. The SCFIS, which is the underl
CoFIF traders took profit last week with near-term contracts gaining favour over the longer dated contracts despite of the 25% jump in the SCFIS index last week. The mood turned bullish again following the Red Sea disruptions over the weekend, which sent all CoFIF contracts to their daily limit up on 18 Dec, forcing a trading halt for the first time since CoFIF was launched in August. Rates are expected to strengthen in the coming week until the Red Sea situation is resolved.
For a day last Tuesday CoFIF traders were disappointed about the SCFIS print issued after Monday (5 Dec) close. CoFIF went nearly limit down at the open while bottom fishers helped reduced the daily losses to 2-3% for the day. But starting from Wednesday, news of $3000/ 40’ GRI, several times of the going spot rates, announced by CMA CGM and MSC brought back the animal spirit among the CoFIF traders. By week close the CoFIF contracts were testing their track record high in September. For second
Betting that the Dec 1 GRI may stick and on the hints of the positive SCFI print the Friday before (i.e. 24 Nov) , the CoFIF contracts rallied on strong volume last week. The April and June CoFIF contracts were up 12-19% WoW while the average daily turnover surpassed $1bn last week. The general sentiments among the CoFIF traders: the freight rates already discounted bearish fundamentals while the year end cargo rush and the liners’ incentive to create better sentiment for the annual contracts be
Following the SCFIS’s 8% WoW correction on 20 November, the Asia-North Europe CoFIF forward rates endured consistent selling pressure through last week on relatively thin volume. Open Interests edged up as turnover-to-open interest ratio fell to just 1.2-1.3, a level suggesting the trading volume may be able to sustain at over $650mn a day. Trading in the week ahead remains hazy with the SCFIS dropping a further 4.4% on 27 November while the SCFI rebounded 10.2% last Friday on December GRI hopes