Longer-dated container freight futures contracts for April to December 2025 fell by 5-12% week-over-week, with the futures market in steep backwardation as freight rates are expected to drop by 55 to 65% below current spot rates for most of 2025. The SCFIS recorded its second successive decline this year, dropping by a further 3.8% after last week’s 3.6% fall. The resolution of the ILA contract negotiations on the US East Coast removed the only potential catalyst for a freight rate rally, with
The freight futures made a same-day U-turn yesterday and edged up a bit more today after the OCEAN Alliance yesterday announced additional blank sailings for February. However, the liners continue to slash their freight rate quotations for shipments leaving in the next few weeks. Utilization has continued to trend downward as weekly capacity reached a 12-month high. The SCFI Europe is expected to report a double-digit decline after the market closes today.
The EC contracts continue to decline due to aggressive pricing from the largest shipping lines and concerns about a potential resumption of Red Sea passage under the Trump administration. On the liners' pricing, Maersk has offered the lowest quotation at $3,400 per FEU for shipments departing on January 20 and January 22. Tianjin - North Europe freight index, being published daily by Tianjin Shipping Exchange, dropped 5.65% overnight today.
EC container freight futures plunged between 4% and 11% week on week, with April contracts taking the hardest hit. Although average daily trading volume ticked up by 4%, it is 29% lower than the 2024 full year average of 87,000 lots per day. The EC2502 February contract dropped 9% WoW and is currently trading at a 40% discount to the latest SCFIS index released after market close on 6 January, with rising concerns over carriers’ aggressive pricing in January with further rate cuts expected post
EC2502 broke below 2200 this morning as Maersk has lowered its quotations for shipments departing in the second half of January to below $4,000 per FEU, prompting other liners to reduce their online FAK rates. As of yesterday (January 2), the latest utilization rates remain high, though the peak may have been reached on December 22, 2024. January's average weekly capacity, which is up 17% month-over-month, may be too high for Maersk to believe that liners will be able to achieve further freigh
The settlement price for EC2412 ended higher than expected with the last 2024 SCFIS assessment on 30 December coming in 4.4% higher than a week before, bringing the final settlement to 3,445 which was 1.5% above the closing price of 3,396. Despite the stronger finish in December, EC futures for 2025 traded lower over the past week, with the main contract for EC2502 falling 13% week-over-week on lower daily volumes. Traders shrugged off the SCFI North Europe rebound on 27 December, as attention
EC2502 continues to decline as Maersk's January quotation has weakened the liners' resolve to pursue further freight rate increases amid the shipment rush before the CNY holidays. HMM has lowered its quotation for January shipments to below $4,800 per FEU, indicating that HMM believes the FAK freight rates have already peaked.
The main futures contract for EC2502 fell 2% week-over-week on significantly lighter volume compared to previous weeks, with traders liquidating 11% of their open interest amidst concerns that spot rates may have peaked. Longer-dated freight futures dropped further on weakening sentiment for post Chinese New Year rate developments with sellers increasing their short positions. Traders were spooked by Maersk’s rate quotation for January shipments that was $500 below the $6,000 per FEU target set
EC futures barely moved on thin volume today, despite a 12% jump in SCFIS overnight. Hapag-Lloyd lowered its January shipment quotations from $6,000-$8,000 per FEU to below $6,000 per FEU, while Maersk has yet to post any quotes for January shipments. Although the industry average utilization for the FE-NEUR route has rebounded to mid-November highs, THE Alliance sailings have shown relatively weak utilization in recent weeks, reflecting the price Hapag-Lloyd has paid for its leadership in raisi
EC contracts mostly lost ground over the past week with the longer dated EC futures after February 2025 registering drops over between 1% to 5%. In contrast, near-term contracts were firm with December 2024 and February 2025 contracts gaining some ground as carriers managed to hold on to the 1 December rate increases. The SCFIS released after the market close on 16 December 16 jumped by 14% week-over-week and 22% over the past two weeks, outperforming market expectations bringing the index to wi