All EC freight futures retreated last week on concerns that market rates have peaked, with the escalation in the Middle East crisis over the weekend doing little to reverse the negative trading sentiment. Apart from the August 2024 contract, all of the other contracts dropped by double digits. The SCFIS defied market expectations and recorded a 5% WoW gain after market close on 22 July which could lift the August contracts for the rest of this week but the near term sentiment continues to be fo
More signs of Asia Europe freight rates being peaked has emerged: 5 out of the 7 departures from Far East to North Europe over the last few days were below trend and the latest trend (on 2-week moving average) has been below the average of the past year. AE10 MAYVIEW MAERSK Departed Tanjung Pelepas on 17 July was only 79.41% full comparing to the 2-week moving average of 94.9%. FE4 HMM GARAM departed Singapore on 16 July was only 90.7% full, comparing to the 2-week moving average of 94.3%. T
Maersk’s high spot rate quotes helped to boost short term market sentiment, but skepticism over the sustainability of the current high rate levels heading into 2025 continues to prevail in the CoFiF futures market. The EC freight futures traders were spooked by reports of a Gaza ceasefire as the longer dated container freight futures for 1H 2025 contracts corrected by 20-30% WoW. Near term contracts for 2H 2024 remain firm, with EC2408 and EC2410 recording marginal gains backed by the 4.0% gai
Most of the Container Freight Index Futures, CoFIF, went limit down today on news of the cease fire framework being within reach. But we only found such story on Washington News. No other major news channels reported a ceasefire deal being concluded. 190k contracts changed hands today, which the highest trading volume since mid May. Though, no sign of liquidation in the market as open interests rose to year-to-date high with position-building increasingly concentrated on the contracts expiring
EC freight futures to North Europe tumbled on 8 July, with 4 out of the 6 contracts hitting their daily 16% limit down level, while the two exceptions EC2408 and EC2410 dropped by 4.1% and 15.6% respectively. The daily price movement limit will be revised from 16% to 19% for contracts expiring in December onwards starting from 9 July. Open interests went up 2% WoW with traders taking more overnight positions for EC2410, EC2504 and EC2506. The EC market was spooked by concerns that freight rates
The EC freight futures to North Europe remain bullish with buying interests shifting towards the longer dated contracts in 2025 with EC2502 (February 2025) and EC2504 (April 2025) contracts registering double digit gains last week, bringing them above the corresponding months’ closing rates in 2024. The newly launched EC2506 contract gained 32% since the launch last Tuesday on rising conviction that the Red Sea crisis will last through 2025. However, the EC2408 contract for August 2024 slipped
EC freight futures traded to new highs across all contracts through April 2025, with the main August 2024 contract rising by 12% WoW to 5,399 points. The latest SCFIS as at 24 June increased by 1.6% to 4,766 with current futures prices implying a 13% upside for spot freight rates from Shanghai to North Europe between now until to the end of August. The bullish outlook looks set to persist in the coming week as rates remain firm with a further round of FAK rate increases due to be applied on 1 Ju
EC futures recovered essentially all of their losses after a volatile week with the longer dated contracts slumping to their 16% limit down levels on 11 June in reaction to the UN ceasefire resolution adopted on 10 June but rebounded over the next 3 trading days with little change to their pre-UN resolution levels. The main EC2408 contract was up 2% WoW, but could extend its gains this week following the SCFIS’ 10.8% WoW gain on 17 Jun. The new capacity additions on the Asia-North Europe route
The SCFIS index to North Europe gained a further 12.8% to reach 3,799 on 3 June 2024, further narrowing the gap between current spot rates and the CoFIF Asia-North Europe freight futures’ EC2406 and 2408 contracts which are now trading at a 10% premium to the current SCFIS. The prices for these 2 contracts with the earliest expiry dates slipped marginally last week on lower traded volumes, with the market lacking fresh directions. The June and August futures rates are now on par, which suggests
What is CoFIF? o INE Container Freight Index Futures (CoFIF) are a type of futures contract traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE). Where is CoFIF traded? o The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), an associated company of the Shanghai Futures Exchange; the two are operated and managed by the same management team. o The INE is regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and serves as every trader's ultimate counterparty. All trading profits and lo