Market Pulse 2026 Week 45

The sharp improvement in carriers earnings in the 3rd quarter look set to continue for another quarter as freight rates are still holding despite softening cargo volumes even as more ships return to the Suez route. Despite their failure to push through the last 3 GRI attempts, carriers have nonetheless been able to prevent a downward rate spiral as protracted port congestion in Europe and the Middle East continues to absorb part of the excess capacity. MSC’s decision to redeploy their surplus 24,000 teu ships to the Arabian Sea and 16,000 teu ships to the Red Sea despite severe berthing delays in those regions has also helped to absorb the excess ships after MSC switched to the Suez route since August.

Although carriers have raised full year earnings guidance, their share prices have taken a knock over the past week, in line with weakening freight futures as the supply-demand outlook worsens. Maersk shares recorded the sharpest drop after 3Q earnings missed market expectations and it confirmed more vessel orders are forthcoming even as the industry orderbook surges to a new high of 48%. The capacity gap between Maersk and CMA CGM has narrowed to just 150,000 teu, with CMA CGM expected to overtake Maersk in 2027.

Maersk 3Q earnings fall short as competitive disadvantage persists
Maersk’s share price slumped by over 10% after its 3rd quarter earnings missed market estimates. Its Ocean shipping EBIT margin improved to 20.6% in the latest quarter but continues to trail behind peers with COSCO/OOCL’s EBIT margin at 28.8% and ONE at 21.6% while Taiwanese carriers Wan Hai and Evergreen are expected to report operating margins of over 30% when their quarterly earnings are released later this week. Maersk’s container liftings dropped by 0.8% year on year as it continues to face severe vessel shortages, a direct result of its failure to grow its fleet in the past 8 years. The capacity shortage has prompted Maersk to make an early return to the Suez while also confirming that it will place additional vessel orders in a belated move to plug the widening capacity gap compared to its main rivals.