The Iran war has not triggered a stagflationary shock but has instead driven a fresh container cargo boom that has sent freight rates to a new 18 month high. Demand for AI-related technology and renewable energy products have driven an early peak season cargo surge with a new round of rate hikes still planned on 15 June after carriers pushed through the 1 June rate hike and Peak Season Surcharge implementation. The positive momentum is driven by both a shortage of vessel space and box equipment and the tight market is expected to last through July, prompting carriers to redeploy ships to the Transpacific and Latin America routes which are the most lucrative currently, while cutting India/Middle East-North America capacity where rates are currently weak.
The lack of open tonnage and limited newbuilding deliveries in the last 2 month, as well as persistent port congestion have sent charter rates surging to fresh highs. The tight market has prompted CMA CGM to send more ships to the Suez route who are planning additional ad hoc Suez passages in addition to the 5 services that are on regular Suez transits.
Johnson Leung
Containership orderbook hit new high as 2nd tier Chinese yards make steady gains
The containership orderbook has reached a new post 2010 high of 39% with total order backlog of 1,630 ships for 13.28m TEU. With most of the Tier 1 shipyards in China fully booked through the end of 2028, recent orders have been mostly secured by smaller yards that are still able to offer 2028 deliveries. Total new capacity scheduled for delivery in 2028 has already reached a record high of 5.4m TEU, with slots still available at some of these smaller Tier 2 shipyards.
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