Market Pulse 2025 Week 41

Sino-US trade tensions escalated over the past week after China announced retaliatory special port fees targeted at US-linked companies with a much wider coverage than initially expected. Even following a last minute notice to exempt ships built in China, container carriers could be liable to pay up to $2.3Bn in the first year for calling at Chinese ports, compared to $1.2Bn that Chinese operators would pay for calling at US ports starting from 14 October.

The US threatened to hit China with an additional 100% import tariffs starting from 1 November in retaliation for new controls that China imposed on exports of rare earth minerals. The escalation of trade tensions could provide a temporary boost to container freight rates in October as shippers try to front load before the higher tariffs take effect, but would negatively impact volumes for the rest of the year.

China raises ante in retaliation against USTR port fees
China’s Ministry of Transport announced on 10 October 2025 the imposition of Special Port Fees for ships calling at Chinese ports that are owned or operated by companies with at least 25% ownership by US interests. The fees will be charged at RMB 400 ($56) per NT starting from 14 October 2025 and will rise progressively by RMB 140 ($20) annually in the next 3 years. The fees will apply on a per voyage basis and are capped at 5 voyages in a year. These fees mirror the USTR 301 port service fees that the US are applying on Chinese operators and Chinese built ships from 14 October 2025.

The Special Port Fee casts a wider net than initially expected as it would include companies that have over 25% US equity interests that could encompass Zim as well as ships chartered from non-operating owners such as Seaspan, SFL, Navios, Costamare and Global Ship Lease. In a notice issued on 14 October, the MOT announced that ships built in China are exempt. With this revision, the total fees payable would be reduced from $3.9Bn to $2.3Bn in the first year but the move may still trigger significant disruptions as carriers try to shift some of their chartered ships out of Chinese ports or rationalize services to minimize the impact as average voyage costs will rise by over $300/teu for the affected ships.