Ports/Logistics

Container volumes recovered slightly in May, with flash estimates showing a 1.4% month-on-month increase over April although it is still 1.6% lower compared to the same month last year. Year to date growth remains negative at -1.8% over the first 5 months of the year. The Indian sub-continent was one of the key bright spots with May volumes up 9.8% yoy. The 2 main Indian ports of Mundra and Nhava Sheva both recorded healthy volumes with YTD volume growth reaching 8.0% and 6.3% respectively. S

The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) have reached a tentative agreement with the PMA on 14 May 2023 on a new 6 year contract covering all 29 ports along the US West Coast, ending 13 months of negotiations that was marked by sporadic work actions by the port workers. The deal will still need to be ratified by the members in a process that would stretch over several months but it has helped to avert a catastrophic shutdown of port facilities in the US West Coast. The ILWU fai

Shanghai reported total container volumes of 4.10m teu in May, for its strongest monthly performance so far this year. Although the May volumes were 20.5% higher than the corresponding period last year, the large increase was due to the 2-month COVID-19 lockdown in April and May 2022 which dragged down Shanghai’s volumes last year. YTD volume growth for the first 5 months of the year reached 4.4% but volumes remain well below the 2022 monthly peak of 4.35m teu. In the India subcontinent, Nhava

US west coast ports remain open despite the work actions taken by the ILWU last week, with the build up of vessels waiting at west coast anchorages largely under control. Although the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) said that cargo operations at the port of Seattle were shut down on 9 and 10 June, this was disputed by the ILWU. Port productivity at Seattle and Tacoma have slowed with over the past week with port stays extended by several days and vessel berthing delays continuing although t

Chinese port data for January remains unavailable, with the publication of official government monthly statistics conspicuously delayed since September 2022. Chinese port data have been inflated since July 2022 with throughput volumes still showing positive growth year-on-year while volumes reported at ports in the rest of the world are clearly in decline. Chinese port volumes have historically led global volume growth, with the pick-up in Chinese port volumes in late 2020 and early 2021 foresh

The cyclical or short term trend is the down turn in the container shipping volume , which has seen global port throughput falling for 5 consecutive months since September 2022, driven by the destocking cycle in the US, soft housing market in the US impacting particularly the housing related shipments, inflation that reduces western consumers' disposable income, rising share of services relative to goods in consumption. The secular trend or the long term trend maybe the fall in China's contrib

Transpacific container volumes from Asia to the US slipped in the 2nd half of 2022 but still ended the full year with a 3% gain compared to 2021. Exports from China and Taiwan to the US were down -2% and -3% respectively yoy, but all the other key export regions registered positive growth, led by Vietnam (+12%), Thailand (+15%) and Indonesia (+18%). But the momentum has turned negative even for these emerging export markets in Southeast Asia, with all origins recording significant falls in the 2

Maersk has lowered its outlook for 2022 global container demand growth to between -4% to -2%, compared to its earlier guidance made in August 2022 of between -1% and +1%. Maersk had initially expected global container volumes to grow by +2% and 4% in February this year but had been repeatedly forced to revise its forecasts downwards. Despite Maersk’s negative outlook, Linerlytica still expects global container throughput growth to remain positive at 0.3% despite the sharply reduced volume proje

Global port throughput may be down 4.3% Mo and 0.2% YoY, based on Linerlytica's port sample of over 200 ports globally. Higher than expected volumes at Chinese ports has lifted global estimates for September marginally, but the trend remains negative with volumes still falling by 4.3% on a month to month basis, with a sharper drop expected in October. YTD volume growth in the first 9 months of 2022 is estimated to have reached 1.2% compared to the same period last year. But slower growth in

Container volumes handled at Nhava Sheva dropped in September compared to the previous 7 months, as the elevated demand over the past year is starting to ease. Growth at neighbouring Mundra is also showing signs of easing, despite the increase in overall capacity to the Indian subcontinent. Based on Linerlytica’s capacity survey, the overall capacity on South Asia and Middle East routes has grown by 6% in October compared to the same period last year. The utilization since week 39 dropped to 93