Markets/Trades

The de-escalation in the Sino-US trade war came earlier than expected after the 2 countries agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs to 30% for Chinese exports to the US for 90 days from 14 May 2025 while tariffs on US exports to China is lowered to 10%, setting the stage for a surge in Transpacific cargo volumes in the next 3 months. The 115% cut in US tariffs on China was larger than expected amidst signs of severe strain on US import volumes that would have hit store shelves in the coming weeks. T

Ocean freight traffic slowed over the past week across Asia due to the Labour Day holidays but average freight rates largely held their ground despite the continuing market turmoil triggered by the US tariffs. Transpacific rates bucked the downward pressure as carriers moved swiftly to remove excess capacity that allowed them to secure rate hikes in both the spot and contract markets, although the rate strength is due more to an anticipated cargo surge if a Sino-US trade deal could be reached.

Shanghai–North Europe freight futures declined further in a shortened trading week due to the May Day holidays from 1 to 5 May. Open interest dropped by 8% week on week as traders liquidated their positions ahead of the holidays with the market outlook remaining negative. The value of the open EC contracts dropped to $829m as it closes in on the 18-month lows. Carriers continue to slash freight rates with capacity utilisation on the Far East–North Europe route remaining subdued as blank sailing

SCFI rates to North Europe dropped by 4.8% last week reflecting carriers rate actions over the last 2 weeks as market rates dropped to $1,600-$1,800/feu. The additional capacity shifted from the US routes has not helped the market, with volumes negatively affected by the Labour Day holidays in most parts of Asia. Port congestion across North Europe remains critical especially in Antwerp where a nationwide strike has halted port operations last week, with delays also impacting ports downstream.

Carrier are pushing ahead with transpacific rate hikes in May despite the severe drop in Chinese volumes that has forced carriers to slash Transpacific capacity by over 20% while capacity utilization on the remaining services are down by more than 5%. The reduction in the cargo flow to the US will start to impact arrivals in May, raising the likelihood of an imminent Sino-US trade deal that could trigger a sharp rebound in Chinese cargo bookings to the US. This has helped carriers’ bid to hike t

Shanghai–North Europe EC freight futures remain in retreat as carriers continued to lower their FAK rate quotations. Maersk and ONE have reduced their offers for early May shipments to $1,650 per FEU, with even lower rates offered by Maersk this week at $1,450 per FEU for mid-May shipments. These moves are expected to prompt further selling by futures traders over the coming week, even after the SCFIS dropped by 5.2% on 28 April. The EC2506 contract that expires in June now trades at a 3% disco

Asia-Europe freight rates weakened across the board, with carriers dropping rates to less than $1,600-$1,800/feu in April and early May. Cargo volumes are expected to drop in the next 2 weeks with Vietnam celebrating the 50th anniversary of its reunification on 30 April followed by the Labour Day holidays across Asia on 1 May. Port congestion remains very serious in Benelux, German and UK ports that have been made worse by the Easter holidays but this has not been sufficient to stop the rate de

Charter rates managed to hold their ground despite the market turmoil, but there are cracks appearing with Maersk seemingly pulling back from their recent charter spree with a panamax 4,400 teu fixture failing subs and the ship was reportedly retaken at a lower rate. Although some charterers are holding off requirements for the time being, market demand remains keen with open ships still able to secure firm fixtures. The USTR 301 action announced on 17 April provided a reprieve for Chinese buil

The USTR announced on 17 April the revised Section 301 actions on China’s dominance In the shipbuilding sector, backing down from all of its initial proposals. Although port fees on Chinese operated and Chinese-built ships are retained, carriers will be able to circumvent the fees by swapping out all of the affected ships in the next 180 days as the fee will no longer apply on the operators’ fleet composition or prospective orders but only on ships calling at US ports on a per voyage basis (cha

Freight futures to North Europe extended their recent losses over the past week, with the main EC2506 contract tumbling by a further 10%. Traders ramped up their short positions on expectations that capacity withdrawn from transpacific routes would soon be redeployed to Asia-Europe lanes. Average daily trading volumes tumbled by 31%, while open interest staged a modest 6% rebound week-on-week. The SCFIS index registered a surprise 7.6% weekly rise on 21 April, but the bounce is likely to be sho