Markets/Trades

Container liners proved to be able to generate values for shareholders despite of the cyclicality of their operating performance. From 2000 to July 2022, container liners returned over 700% to their shareholders whereas during the same period MSCI World returned only 440%.

The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) (source: SSE) came out just now fell below its level a year ago, registering the first YoY drop since week 50 2019. This weekly published counter tracks both spot and contracted freight rates of outbound shipments from China. The recent peak of CCFI was 3,588 recorded on 11 Feb 2022. At 2,993, CCFI has fallen 17% from its peak. Container freight rates are one of the most trend sensitive price indices in all markets. Being trend sensitive means that

Transit times to US East Coast ports is lengthening noticeably with both the Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast ports experiencing increased waiting times. Savannah is the most badly affected port currently with waiting times of up to 20 days, with vessel queues still building. There are currently 37 ships waiting to berth a Savannah which can handle only 6-9 ships at any time. New York and Houston are also experiencing delays of up to 10 days. While the situation at other USEC ports are not as criti

China's market share of global port throughput increased marginally in the last four years despite of the US Tariff on the Chinese exports and the lock-downs at China's coastal manufacturing hubs. The port throughput numbers do not show obvious trend of China's losing market share in the exports as oppose to what some in the market have expected. China's market share of global port throughput increased from 33.2% in 2017 to 34.2 in 2021. Over the same period, South East Asia, which is widely ex

Xinhua News Agency announced overnight that PLA will conduct military drills between 4 August and 7 August in areas surrounding Taiwan. We have found that 186 ports calls by 174 container ships/675k TEU capacity may be affected. Please see attached list for details of Trade/Operators/Services/Ships that are due to depart during the affected period. Download excel file [https://www.linerlytica.com/uploads/twspc/TaiwanCalls0804-0807.xlsx?utm_source=20220803]

The transpacific carriers landscape has changed significantly since 2019, with competition remaining very keen amongst the incumbent carriers even as newcomers carved out a 4% share of the market. MSC has been the most aggressive carrier, chalking up a 160% increase in liftings in the first 6 months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2019. However, MSC has struggled to maintain the growth momentum since the start of the year as it is heavily reliant on the weakening spot market. At the o

Transpacific freight rates have dropped further, with the SCFI assessment dropping to $6,694/feu but rates of $6,000/feu are now being offered by carriers which will continue to drive down the various spot rate indicators in the weeks ahead. There are no signs of rates rebounding in August, leaving very little room for rates to rally before the start of the winter slack season in October. Spot rates are now firmly lower than 12 month contract rates signed in May (ranging from $7,500 to $10,500

What may have gone unnoticed in the ocean freight market is that the Trans Pacific eastbound air freight rates have quietly rebounded by 9% since hitting the low in April. The same airfreight price index and SCFI USWC index shares 87% correlation going back to the inception of SCFI in 2009. The diversion like what we have just seen is rare. Relative to ocean freight, air freight tends to carry cargo more time sensitive and of higher value. The rebound in air freight price may be due to a number

The soft freight market is starting to drag down charter rates but a major correction is not on the cards given the limited availability of open tonnage until early next year. Carriers remain very keen to lock in ships especially in the panamax and larger segments, with several fixtures for charters commencing only in 2023 have already been signed with periods stretching for up to 5 years. Second hand transactions remain brisk, with purchaser interest remaining very strong with asking prices c

Projected throughput growth for Linerlytica’s global port sample that accounts for over 75% of global container handling volumes is expected to show a marginal increase of just 0.3% during the first half of 2022. Chinese ports remain largely resilient despite the COVID related lockdowns, with first half growth estimated at 2.4%. A more detailed analysis of the Chinese volumes will be added next week when  the final port numbers for June are confirmed. North American ports also performed strong