Markets/Trades

Total 181 Posts

Markets

Further Rise in USWC Spot Rates Set Stage for Mid August GRI

SCFI rates breached the $2,000/feu level to the US West Coast  and $3,000/feu to the East Coast for the first time since October 2022 and December 2022 respectively. Transpacific carriers will further extend their rate gains with the mid August rate increase almost certain to be pushed through successfully with bookings remaining very strong on lower capacity available through August. Capacity availability will pick up in September on both the WC and EC routes, which will test the carriers abi

Markets

Spot rates continue to diverge between TP and AE

Transpacific rates are holding steady after the 15 July rate increase, backed by the strong capacity utilization rates with bookings stretching out 3 to 4 weeks forward. Carriers are pushing ahead with the 1 Aug rate hike, which would bring rates to the US West Coast over $2,000/feu for the first time since October 2022. The rate rebound is expected to last through mid-August on the back of the strong vessel utilization with minimal capacity additions in the coming weeks. Asia-Europe rates we

Markets

Russian container trade volumes rebound

Total container volumes handled at Russian ports rebounded sharply in the 2nd quarter of 2023 with a 33% yoy gain despite the ongoing sanctions against Russia. Far East gateway volumes through Vladivostok, Vostochny and Nakhodka grew by 39%, while volumes handled at the Black Sea gateway of Novorossiysk increased by 40%. Although the Baltic gateways of St Petersburg, Ust-Luga and Kaliningrad rebounded strongly by 25% compared to a year ago, total Baltic volumes remain at less than half of their

Markets

Divergent TP and AE freight rates

Transpacific carriers successfully pushed ahead with the 15 July rate increase, with rates soaring to a 9 month high of $1,771/feu to the West Coast, based on the latest SCFI assessment. The removal of Zim’s ZNP this week will be followed by THE Alliance’s suspension of the PS5 from August, along with the disruptions from the Canadian port strike have provided positive catalysts for the rate hike planned on 1 August. Carriers are capitalizing on the tighter space situation from the rise in bla

Markets

China PMI Export Order Down

China PMI Export Order in June slipped to 46.4, denting hopes of a restocking led rebound in export cargo volumes with deeper declines expected. US retail data remains weak especially for home improvement retailers with inventory levels remaining elevated (Home Depot and Lowe’s). The main US grocery/department stores still struggle with high inventory levels, especially for Walmart whose inventory to sales ratio remain above its historical levels. Nike’s sales grew 5% YoY for the 3-month ended

Markets

Rapid Fall in TP Spot Rate Ahead of Planned GRI

Transpacific rates continued their decline over the past week, with carriers forced to undercut rates on both the West Coast and East Coast as capacity utilization levels are still dropping. There will be some capacity reductions over the coming weeks, with carriers expected to obtain a $200-300/feu rate increase in early July but the sustainability of the rate increase remains in doubt after the failure of the last 4 transpacific GRI attempts. Asia-Europe rates continued to slip despite relat

Markets

Fresh Lows For USWC Rates

Transpacific rates have fallen to fresh lows with rates dropping to $1,100 to $1,150/feu to the West Coast which is below the SCFI assessment of $1,207/feu. Rates to the US East Coast rates took a larger tumble with rates set to drop below $2,000/feu compared to the current SCFI rate of $2,103. The resolution of the ILWU negotiations will put further pressure on transpacific freight rates as the threat of a peak season disruption to cargo flows into the US has been removed and with no pick up c

Markets

Exports from China recorded sequential drop since March

Customs of PRC reported foreign trade figures on 7 Jun, for which the market was negatively surprised by the 7.5% YoY drop in May whereas analysts were expecting just 0.4% decline. But what the market have missed may be more concerning for container shipping, in our view, which is the sequential drop in export since March. Since 2014, Chinese export has always grown sequentially and on average 14% from March through May, an usual seasonal pattern. This year, the Chinese exports fell 10% in t

Markets

China's April PMI Export Order suggests softening container volumes ahead

China's April PMI New Export Order came out as 47.6 on 30 April, suggesting Chinese export order experienced sequential contraction in April comparing to that of March. Reading through to the volume, the China PMI export orders suggests container volume may experience sequential softening in May or even June relative to the previous months. Though, it is important to read this data bearing in mind that China could be losing export market share to the ASEAN exporters (read here [https://www.liner

Markets

UPS latest update bearish

UPS share price dropped by 10% overnight (Apr 26) on bearish management guidance particularly on the domestic package, which offers a read-through to the demand for container shipping. On what may indicate the latest development of US retail sales, UPS's domestic package volume dropped 5% YoY in 1Q 2023, an acceleration from the 4% YoY drop in the previous quarter. Moreover, management in an CNBC interview suggested that the decline in the domestic package volume accelerated markedly during Ma

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